Saturday, February 23, 2008

The Expo Line Cometh

As work on the Expo Line advances, inquest deepens. What will the Expo Line deliver? Disappointing ridership, passing along the fringes of sleepy bedroom communities, and an also-ran manufacturing corridor? The beginnings of a vital East-West rail route, paralleling the 10 freeway, whisking commuters in-and-out of downtowns L.A. and Culver, USC, and the Hayden tract? Dizzy development, as suddenly incentivized builders makeover moribund Exposition Boulevard? Rising land and home prices, buoyed by a major infrastructure improvement and the hip factor. A massive uptick in crime, as undesirables breach the residential sanctum, get-aways performed on the hour and half-hour?

It's hard to predict ridership, particularly for the limited phase one section terminating in downtown Culver City, but officials project a healthy 43,000 non weekend boardings a day by 2025. Perhaps those numbers are politically augmented; still, the MTA has often been accused of low-balling predictions, and several lines have exceeded expectations.

While the ultimate phase two alignment is undecided, the target terminus is 5th and Colorado, in Santa Monica.

Developers, drawn by density bonuses and other perks, will likely contemplate projects along the industrial hinterlands between Arlington and La Cienega and beyond.

Overlooked amongst those factors contributing to the appreciation of LA real estate this decade: the completion of the Metro Red Line (or "the Subway to Somewhere" in 1999-2000) and Gold Line (2003). Studies concerning the impacts of rail transit in the bay area (BART), along the Miami-Dade system, in suburban Philadelphia (SEPTA), across the Eastside Metropolitan Area Express (Portland), and in DeKalb county (Georgia), show almost without exception higher property values (per square foot) in those areas served. The extent of property value increases appears tied to market penetration, i.e. ridership. (I'll write more about this apparent relationship soon)

The Cheviot Hills NIMBYS apparently foster a security concern, a stilted conkerbill of '70's urban warfare films, waves of lumbering, crime-committing zombies and icy cool pachucos, mysteriously excluded from other forms of transportation--even buses--waging gang sanctioned siege, overwhelming blubbery, leaden law enforcement.

Hmmm, puts me in the mood for a good Western.

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